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CBB 🏀 2/13/2020


College Basketball

We’ll look at an Ohio Valley Conference contest between the Jacksonville State Gamecocks  and the Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles for our game analysis today. This game starts at 7:00 PM EST (Rotation Number 607/608) and is being played on the Golden Eagles’ home court. Jacksonville State is favored (-3.5) and the total is 135.0. Our lean is going under the total of 135.0 points.  The projected pace for this game is 67.3 per 100 possessions, which is 1.2% below the Division I average, while this game total (135.0) is 3.6% below average. The Gamecocks are 1-4 O/U in their last 5 games, while the Golden Eagles are 0-3 O/U in their last 3 games. Both of these teams are close to the bottom in offensive rankings.  Jacksonville State scores a CDS 64.9 ppg, ranked 294th, and also ranks 306th in offensive adjusted efficiency (94.8 points per 100 possessions) . Tennessee Tech sports a 90.1 offensive adjusted efficiency number, ranking 343rd, and scores 60.6 ppg, which ranks 340th. CDS Model 1’s prediction, is 68.8-64.4, Jacksonville State, total 133.2, giving the under a 54.4% chance of occurring. CDS Model 2’s prediction, is 67.9-64.3, Gamecocks, total 132.2, which is the equivalent of a 57.1% chance of going under the total.  This game is rated only as a lean as Jacksonville State’s above average 2 pt game, (49.8% shooting from 2, ranking 151st) could take advantage of the Golden Eagles’ poor 2 pt defense (53.4% fgp, ranking 314th) .

Lean Jacksonville State vs. Tennessee Tech Under 135.0

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The Sports Handicapping Journey:

Strategies and Systems in Practice (Basketball The Martingale System)​

I'm going to quickly remind you about The Martingale System and how it works. It's quite simple - when you win, you keep your bet the same. After you lose, you double your bet to recover the losses from the previous bet. 

And double again if you lose again, and so on and so forth, until you eventually win, at which time you drop your bet back to its original amount.

College Basketball Bets

Starting off with our eight college basketball bets and with a flat betting strategy that dictates our base bet is three percent of our bankroll, which is $30 by assuming a $1,000 bankroll.

Our bets:

 

  • $30 on Auburn -9 (loss)

  • $60 on Villanova -1.5 (win)

  • $30 on Tennessee +13.5 (win)

  • $30 on Kentucky +4 (win)

  • $30 on Maryland +1.5 (win)

  • $30 on Houston -12.5 (win)

  • $30 on Michigan State -3 (win)

  • $30 on San Diego State -6.5 (loss)


We finish the eight college basketball bets with $150 in profit. Had we just bet each game at $30 and didn't employ The Martingale System, we obviously still would have done well by winning six of eight games and profiting $120.

So in the case of these eight bets, the system worked. And considering we lost our last of the eight games, the system is still in operation. So for our very first NBA bet that we place, we're going to double the bet to $60.

NBA Bets

As we did with college basketball, we placed four bets on Saturday and four bets on Sunday. Let's see how we did sticking with The Martingale System.

 

  • $60 on Utah -4 (win)

  • $30 on Detroit -2 (loss)

  • $60 on Oklahoma City +1.5 (win)

  • $30 on L.A. Lakers -4.5 (loss)

  • $60 on Denver -1 (win)

  • $30 on Toronto -3 (win)

  • $30 on Boston +1 (loss)

  • $60 on Brooklyn +2.5 (loss)


We didn't do as well on our NBA bets, and as straight-up $30 per game wagers, we broke even minus the vig. Using The Martingale System, we are actually up $30 of profit, and we still have a $120 bet to come that will hopefully recover the losses from our Boston and Brooklyn bets.

Of course, that is the downside of this system. While we have won money on both our college basketball bets and NBA bets, to keep using the system and making it work, we have a rather large bet to place. And if we lose that, then there is a $240 bet to place.

And if we are to lose that bet, suddenly everything we won on our college bets is gone, and we are now in the hole. So don't use The Martingale if you can't withstand losses, or if you don't feel good about your wagers. 

A protracted losing streak can wipe out a bankroll. Although, as you can see, if you are to keep losses to a minimum, this is a way to improve your overall profit.

EPL ⚽️  2/13/2020

And remember, Clear Data Sports has more than just football and college basketball… here’s a sneak peak at what our models are showing for the EPL this week… Watch Riley's Video Here


EPL Week 26 (Part 2) Goalscorer Leans

 
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CDS 📊  2/13/2020


The Pony Experience

The Syrian Pony is thrilled today to be able to introduce a members of the Clear Data Sports community and also one of the most talented handicappers he’s ever known to share with us some important concepts. 

 

Calculating Edge by Anthony Capone 


This is part one in a series I plan on writing to get those interested in improving their Handicapping skills to do so in the proper way. I wanted to start with a easy way to find your edge.

This is a subject I wanted to touch upon briefly, which will give you far better betting habits when all is said and done. The reason finding your edge is so important is that without it there is no real way of knowing whether the bet you’re looking to make will be potentially profitable or not. For the sake of this
conversation we will call this calculation an  edge estimation, because considering you’ll need to install a subjective win percentage, an estimation is exactly what it is. First I need you to forget most of the nonsense you may have read by touts on the internet who, not only have no clue what an edge is, but also have
no idea how to calculate it. 
 
Let me be very clear. There are no bets, nor will there ever be that have a normalized win percentage of 60% and 70%. Just think how ludicrous this sounds when the very best of those that bet professionally live very well on 56-57%. There are a few schools of thought regarding edge, for my own bets that I have a 3-4 % edge on average with every bet I make. So my impetus is to spread that edge over as many games as possible. Now others like to make fewer bets, and if that works for you, then that’s exactly how you should bet. I’ve always been a high volume bettor, only shortening up my card towards the  end of a season as the Book’s numbers tighten up dramatically. 

So what about edge? Let’s define exactly what “Estimated Edge” is. It is quite simply an estimate of your chances of winning a bet multiplied by the odds in (Decimal Form). So let’s say you have a bet that you believe has a 55% chance of being successful at -110 (1.909). You would Then take .55 X1.909= 1.0499 or almost a 5% estimated edge. A 54% expected win rate at -110 would look like this .54 X 1.909= 1.0308 or around 3.1% estimated edge. Now for those of you that are as mathematically dysfunctional as I am, I will include the spreadsheet formula below. 

Using the edge formula is of utmost importance when betting Live as well. Let’s face it, for those that think the Books are stupid, I can tell you they are far from it. The big boys like Pinnacle, CRIS, Bookmaker, Circa, Southpoint and a few lesser known by most have the very best programmers, data scientists, and model builders that money can buy. They look at sports betting and making numbers like an enormous math problem.

If you want to beat them, then you need to start looking at sports betting the exact same way. Now to make this as easy as possible for those using Excel, use the following:

In A1 on your spreadsheet put the price (Ex: -110,-115 etc.). In A2 put your estimated win % in Decimal form (.54, .55 etc.) In any other cell drop this formula in

=if(A1<0,1/(A1/-100)+1,A1/100+1)*A2-1

This is the first in a series of articles I plan on doing to get those interested in being sharper with this hobby. 

Tomorrow, I’ll talk about how to make a proper number.

If you would like to interact with talented people like Tony and be a part of the best sports betting community anywhere, click the button and sign up! 

Talk to you soon!

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See you Friday,​


Mark The Basewinner


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