hycm cpa
hycm cpa

A look at the week ahead with Giles Coghlan

Email sent: Feb 13, 2020 10:13 am

Is this your brand on Milled? You can claim it.

A Look at the Week Ahead with Giles Coghlan

Giles Coghlan

Giles Coghlan
Chief Currency Analyst

"The global risk tone has been alternating between risk on and risk off this week as the market is undecided about the potential impact of the coronavirus. Midweek there was an adjustment to the way Hubei cases were classified, which led to a large spike in reported cases from the Hubei region.

The main issue going forward will be any evidence of supply chains being impacted by China’s considerable efforts to contain the coronavirus. If we start to see evidence these supply chains are being hampered, then expect global equity markets to start falling again."

Top tier events of the week

Wednesday, February 20

Will CPI data feed CAD bears?

Friday, February 21

Will Euro Manufacturing and Services PMI data start to show further falls?


Watch out for the latest news of the coronavirus to dictate risk sentiment

Trade now


Years' Group


Global Awards


Customer Support

Fundamental outlook

This week

Thursday, February 13

USD: Inflation data

The core CPI reading was 2.3% y/y vs 2.2% expected, but this inflationary uptick should be negated by recent low oil prices. The market is still expecting one Fed rate cut this year even though the Fed’s dot plot is projecting no further rate cuts this year.

Wednesday, February 12

NZD: Rate Statement

The NZD should continue to find buyers after the RBNZ adjusted their future interest rate path. The RBNZ now see the interest rate at 1.00% in June 2020 and 1.10% in June 2021. This is revising up the previous forecast of 0.9% through to March 2021.

Wednesday, February 12

EUR: Industrial Production

The EUR/USD fell this week to the lowest level since May 12, 2017. This was partly helped by the reduction in eurozone factory activity with production levels at -2.1% vs -2.0% m/m expected. Expect Euro sellers on pullbacks as expectations rise for future ECB easing.

Next week

Wednesday, February 19

CAD: Inflation data

Future markets are pricing in a 60% chance of a Bank of Canada rate cut by April. If oil markets fall further next week CAD will be pressured lower still. Inflation data on Wednesday will be key for the BoC. A weak reading here and expect USD/CAD buyers.

Friday, February 21

EUR: Manufacturing and Services PMI’s

The slowdown in the Eurozone is only set to get worse if the spread of the coronavirus impacts Eurozone manufacturing. Investors will be looking for signs of a further slowdown from Manufacturing and Services PMI data out this Friday.


Coronavirus: Watch out for the latest virus news

Keep alert to latest news on the seriousness of the coronavirus spread. Watch out for supply chain issues being felt from next week onwards. Finally, note that for the past two weeks, Friday has been a strong risk off day (equity selling, JPY and CHF strength) heading into the uncertainties of weekend news. Don’t get caught out!

Economic calendar

Keeping up with the news and headlines can be challenging.
Set your filters for your desired country, category and level of volatility and we'll make sure you don't miss any potentially market-moving events in the week ahead.

Go to calendar

Make informed trades

Now, you never need overlook key information again. The best trades are those based on informed decision-making. Trade smart, trade safe.

Trade now

Upcoming Webinar and Workshop

February 17, 12:30 - 1:30pm GMT

FX Week Ahead: Live Market Analysis

German ZEW Economic sentiment: How confident is Ger-many in the face of the coronavirus?

GBP CPI data: EU-UK trade deal still in the forefront for GBP traders

AUD labour data: Any weakening in labour data and AUD bears will accelerate

Eurozone manufacturing and services PMI are key releases for the Euro this week

US manufacturing PMI on Friday to give an insight into state of US factory output

Register now
February 19, 12:30 - 1:30pm GMT

Live Trading Workshop: Level Up with HYCM

Special topic of the week: "Coronavirus risk: The danger to supply chains and global GDP as the outbreak continues."

Receive a 5-step trading guide handout

Complete practical excercies under the guidance of industry expert

Join Q&A session and leave no unresolved trading queries

Register now

High Risk Investment Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 79% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. For more information please refer to HYCM’s Risk Disclosure. Additionally, the content of this landing page is for information purposes only and it is not intended as a recommendation or advice. Any indication of past performance or simulated past performance included in advertisements published by HYCM is not a reliable indicator of future results. The customer carries the sole responsibility for all the businesses or investments that are carried out at HYCM. Regional Restrictions: Henyep Capital Markets (UK) Limited, HYCM (Europe) Limited and HYCM Ltd do not offer Contracts for Difference to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Afghanistan, Hong Kong, Belgium, Japan, the United States of America and some other regions. For more information please refer to our Customer Agreements.

Important: This communication and included attachments are intended solely for the attention and use of the individual or entity to whom they are addressed and may contain information that is privileged, proprietary or confidential. If you are not the intended recipient or have received this communication in error, please notify the sender immediately by replying to this communication and then deleting this communication and attachments from your computer and system. If you are not the intended recipient you are hereby notified that any and all use, review, disclosure, printing, copying, distribution or taking of any action in relation to or in reliance on this communication and the information contained in it is strictly prohibited and may be unlawful. Any views or opinions presented in this communication are solely those of the sender and do not necessarily represent those of HYCM. Email transmission security and error-free status cannot be guaranteed as information could be intercepted, corrupted, destroyed, delayed, incomplete, or contain viruses. The sender therefore does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this message which may arise as a result of email transmission.

Legal Information: HYCM is the trading name of Henyep Capital Markets (UK) Limited, HYCM (Europe) Ltd and HYCM Limited. Henyep Capital Markets (UK) Limited is authorized and regulated under the Financial Conduct Authority with reference number 186171. HYCM (Europe) Ltd is authorized and regulated under the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission under license number 259/14. HYCM Limited is authorized and regulated under the Cayman Islands Monetary Authority with reference number 1442313. The Henyep Capital Markets Group is holding company and its assets are a controlling equity interest in its subsidiaries, Henyep Capital Markets (UK) Limited, HYCM Europe Ltd and HYCM Limited. All references on this email to "HYCM" refer to all subsidiaries of the Henyep Capital Markets Group.

Other emails from hycm cpa

hycm cpa
Feb 12, 2020
Ethereum Price Shoots Up ❗
hycm cpa
Feb 10, 2020
[Updated] Trading Workshop is Now on Wednesday
hycm cpa
Feb 10, 2020
Trading Workshop is Now on Wednesday