🇮🇷 Axios AM: Inside the deal talks

Hello, Sunday readers. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,286 words ... 5 mins. Thanks to Alex Fitzpatrick for orchestrating. Edited by Andrew Pantazi.

⚡️ The Secret Service returned fire and killed a 21-year-old man who approached a White House checkpoint and started shooting just after 6 p.m. The shooter, who was arrested last year for trying to enter another White House checkpoint, died at the hospital. A bystander was injured.

• President Trump was in the White House. The incident came 28 days after a gunman stormed the White House Correspondents' Dinner.

Watch: ABC's Selina Wang hits the deck as she tapes a report on Pebble Beach.

Axios' Barak Ravid reports that the agreement the U.S. and Iran are close to signing involves a 60-day ceasefire extension during which the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened. Iran would freely sell oil, and negotiations would be held on curbing its nuclear program.

• Why it matters: The deal would avoid war escalation and would decrease pressure on the global oil supply. It's unclear whether it'd lead to a lasting peace agreement that also addresses President Trump's nuclear demands.

State of play: Both Trump and the mediators have indicated the deal could be announced as soon as today, though it hasn't been finalized and could still fall apart.

• A U.S. official provided a detailed outline of the draft. Those details haven't been confirmed by the Iranian side, though Tehran has also indicated a deal is getting close.

What's in the deal

Both sides would sign a memorandum of understanding lasting 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

• During the 60-day period, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen with no tolls, and Iran would clear its mines in the strait.
• In exchange, the U.S. would lift its blockade on Iranian ports and issue some sanctions waivers to allow Iran to sell oil freely.
• The U.S. official acknowledged that would be a boon to Iran's economy but said it would also give significant relief to the global oil market. The official said Trump's key principle in the agreement is "relief for performance."

☢️ The draft MOU includes commitments from Iran to never pursue nuclear weapons and to negotiate over a suspension of its uranium enrichment and the removal of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, the U.S. official said.

• Iran gave the U.S., through the mediators, verbal commitments on the scope of concessions it's willing to make on suspending enrichment and giving up nuclear material, according to two knowledgeable sources.
• U.S. forces would stay in the region during the 60-day period and only withdraw if a final deal is reached.
• Some of Iran's frozen funds could be released if it hits certain milestones, but none would be freed upfront, a U.S. official says. No sanctions would be permanently lifted before a final deal is reached.

The intrigue: The draft MOU also makes clear that the war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon would end.

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed concern about that condition during a phone call with Trump yesterday, an Israeli official said.

How it happened

Trump sounded out several Arab and Muslim leaders about the deal in a conference call yesterday, and all said they support it, three sources familiar with the call said.

• They included the UAE's hawkish president, Mohammed bin Zayed. Also on the call were the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan, all of which have been involved in the mediation efforts.

😡 Several hawkish Republicans, including Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), released statements opposing the terms.

• Get the latest.

Several top Democratic candidates are airing scathing midterm ads linking their Republican foes to the Jeffrey Epstein scandal, Axios' Holly Otterbein reports.

• They're betting that the Trump administration's reluctance to release the Epstein files still resonates with voters.

💰 In the hotly contested Ohio Senate race, Democrat Sherrod Brown has spent nearly $1.5 million on TV ads slamming GOP rival Sen. Jon Husted for taking donations from Epstein financial client Leslie Wexner, per ad-tracking firm AdImpact. (Watch)

• Husted spokesperson Amy Natoce tells Axios that the campaign has "donated all available funds" from Wexner "to an anti-human trafficking charity."

🦞 Graham Platner, the presumptive Democratic nominee in the Maine Senate race — a must-win for Dems' hopes of a Senate majority — is making anti-Epstein messaging part of his strategy to unseat Republican Sen. Susan Collins.

• In a six-figure TV ad, Platner accuses Collins of selling out voters to "the president and to the Epstein class." (Watch)

🗂️ Rep. Ro Khanna, a California Democrat who spearheaded the push to release the Epstein files, tells Axios: "The establishment class thought I was crazy when I first pushed to release the Epstein files."

• "What they missed is that Epstein goes to the core of what people hate about Washington: a rigged system where the rich and powerful play by different rules."

Go deeper.

SpaceX's IPO paperwork claims the company can tap a nearly $30 trillion market — the largest "in human history," Axios' Emily Peck reports.

• It's an astoundingly huge number, only slightly less than the total U.S. GDP.

🛰️ SpaceX says it can create new "multi-trillion-dollar" markets across space, AI and satellite connectivity, making its total addressable market a whopping $28.5 trillion.

• That's the maximum revenue if it landed every potential customer in existence.

🔮 The estimates are imprecise by nature — they're an optimistic take on a company's potential.

• Still, SpaceX's number appears wildly ambitious.
• Go deeper ... Read the prospectus.

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As seen from the Washington Monument yesterday, major construction is underway at the White House on both the ballroom (at right) and the Octagon (cage) on the South Lawn for UFC Freedom 250, coming up June 14 — which is both Flag Day and President Trump's 80th birthday.

Americans trust some prediction markets, trading platforms and sportsbooks more than some of the country's best-known companies, Axios' Nathan Bomey reports.

• Prediction market Polymarket notched a higher reputation ranking in the 2026 Axios Harris Poll 100 (No. 45) than companies like Verizon, Ford, Target, Uber, Disney and Bank of America.

🏹 Investment platform Robinhood — which offers prediction market services through Kalshi — ranked No. 42.

• DraftKings, one of the two leading sportsbooks, ranked No. 66 — ahead of many household-name giants of business.

Go deeper.

About 40,000 residents of Orange County, Calif., are under evacuation orders amid fears of an explosion from a chemical tank at an aerospace plastics plant.

• Evacuation orders covered parts of Garden Grove, Cypress, Stanton, Anaheim, Buena Park and Westminster.
• Emergency crews are trying to stop an "overheating tank filled with a toxic chemical from leaking or triggering what officials warn could be a catastrophic explosion," CNN reports.

🚔 California Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency in Orange County.

• Get the latest.

Stephen Colbert made a surprise return to TV less than 24 hours after his final "The Late Show" episode aired — on a Michigan community access show.

• The longtime late-night star hosted "Only in Monroe," broadcast in Southeast Michigan and along Lake Erie.

🎸 Actor Jeff Daniels came in as a guest. Rocker Jack White, a Michigan native, showed up as "volunteer music director." Actor Steve Buscemi and rapper Eminem, a Detroit native, appeared in recorded bits.

• Go deeper ... Watch the episode.

The "tarps off" trend has throngs of baseball fans going shirtless to support their teams.

• It picked up steam after dozens of St. Louis Cardinals fans turned their shirts into rally towels at a game earlier this month, USA Today reports.

Manager Oliver Marmol said after the Cards won 5-4 in extras: "Whoever started that in right field, I'll do whatever I need to do to make sure they come every game."

👕 Fans have also been going "tarps off" in Florida, Seattle, Detroit and more.

• Go deeper.

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