It’s often said keeping busy is a good way to take your mind off your problems. Well today the chancellor’s announcing support to help make ends meet. The communities secretary made a major speech on social care. The prime minister wrote a piece for a newspaper boasting about a new trade deal with countries in the Middle East. And maybe most importantly of all, figures show that migration has slowed significantly.

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Net migration, the difference between the number of people moving to and leaving the UK, dropped to 171,000 last year, the lowest level since 2012 (if you don’t include the Covid era) and dramatically down from a peak in 2023, when it hit nearly a million. The official data says the main reason is that the number of people from outside the EU coming to the UK to work has gone down by nearly 50%.

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The number of asylum seekers living in hotels, perhaps one of the most visible signs of a broken system, has also fallen to 20,885 in the 12 months to March 2026. That’s around 10,000 fewer than at the end of 2025, and way down on the peak of 56,000 in September 2023, when the Tories were in charge.

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Those are big changes, not just in terms of the numbers, but potentially in terms of the political conversation. Immigration has been such a huge part of a very angry political conversation for years. Labour might hope that when the facts change, the tone of the debate may change, too. That said, it’s worth noting the number of people arriving in the UK on small boats has gone up a touch. And while fewer people are being housed in hotels, the Conservatives have accused the government of “hiding” them in residential streets, as migrants are increasingly housed in rented accommodation rather than hotels.

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But neither the immigration figures, nor a new trade deal, nor a cheap tin of beans, nor free bus tickets for kids on summer holidays can really distract Labour from all that’s happened in the last week. Much of the party has concluded the PM should be replaced, and his keenest rival has a route to take him on. However busy the government looks, the last seven days have slashed the odds on Sir Keir Starmer remaining in No 10.

The decision on whether Starmer will survive the summer isn’t one for all of us. By a twist of fate, the biggest power brokers in the land are now about 76,000 voters in the Makerfield constituency just south of Wigan.

For the next few weeks they will be bombarded by politicians and reporters, and confronted by canvassers with clipboards. Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock, the self-styled King of the North, Andy Burnham, is running as the Labour candidate - Starmer didn’t have the power to block him this time. His main rival is Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon, who came second in the seat last time round in 2024. Other candidates announced so far are:

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• Alan ‘Howlin’ Laud Hope, The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
• Rebecca Shepherd, Restore Britain
• Michael Winstanley, The Conservative Party

A full list of candidates will continue to be updated here.

But there are two really important things to know - first off, for all his local focus, Burnham is fighting this seat because he wants to get back to Westminster so he can replace Starmer.

Second, for all that his popularity is real, there is also a real chance that Burnham doesn’t win. Frankly, the Labour Party does not know what it would do if that happened. Will Wes Streeting, who’s been very public about his plan to run for the job, have the votes to trigger a contest? Will the support for Burnham move to Angela Rayner, or even Ed Miliband? Will another surprise contender emerge? Without Burnham in the race, could Starmer mount a more persuasive argument to stay? Remember this isn’t just a conversation about who leads Labour. It’s the decision about who is PM, and if Burnham loses, Labour’s answer is… who knows!

It is extraordinary that one of the most established political parties in the world has ended up in a position where its fortunes, and the fate of who runs the country, could be settled by a group of voters who wouldn’t even fill Wembley.

We have spent a lot of time on the show talking about how to protect kids online. We’ve heard from families devastated by the dangers, and asked politicians how they plan to protect children in future. But what has always been part of that conversation is the way rules meant to do so were unlikely to be a match for the might of the tech platforms.

So it’s not a a huge surprise to see that Ofcom has published a significant report this morning warning that two of those huge platforms aren’t safe enough for kids. The watchdog expressed concern that neither TikTok or YouTube had any extra plans to do anything about it.

For its part, YouTube said it worked with child safety experts to provide “industry-leading, age-appropriate” experiences for children. And TikTok said it was “very disappointing” Ofcom had failed to acknowledge its safety features.

Ofcom’s research also says many younger kids are spending time on platforms they’re not old enough for. A survey by the regulator found 84% of children aged eight to 12 were still using at least one major service with a minimum age requirement of 13. Any day now the government is meant to make up its mind on the issue - and decide whether to bring in new rules to protect kids from the worst of social media. Today’s findings will add to the pressure to act.

As we tried to get to the bottom of what was going on in Labour on Sunday, lots of you shared your views - thank you!

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Steve said it could “make a complete mockery of the electoral process” for Burnham to stand in the Makerfield by-election only to immediately challenge the PM for the Labour leadership. “How will he serve the people that voted him in?”

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Robert, who is from Manchester, said: “Burnham has done a half-decent job as mayor, but government is an entirely different thing, and Streeting is still wet between the ears.”

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“I think that this rush to get Andy Burnham into parliament seems desperate and out of control,” Sylvia said. She also expressed concerns over Streeting’s comments on Brexit: “Does he really think that will win votes from people looking to support Reform?”

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Peter suggested Rayner should get more attention in the discussion about Labour leadership. “She has more gusto and bottle than the others put together,” he said. 

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But some of you thought Starmer should stay in the top job. “I voted for Sir Keir to lead; I want Sir Keir to stay and to learn and get on with everything,” said Jaclyn. “I loathe disloyalty.”

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John described talk of changing Labour leader to appease “disgruntled voters” as “nonsense”. “No one asks why Reform did so well in the local elections,” he said. “I suspect it’s the frustration that whatever party is in power the small boat crossings continue.”

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Please let us know your thoughts about a possible Burnham premiership and send in your questions and comments to [email protected] or on WhatsApp to 08000 28 21 61.

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See you on Sunday,

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Laura K

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You can also follow me on X at @bbclaurak or on Instagram on bbclaurak.