Dancing With the Stars is back! And that means that in just a few short months, a Mirrorball Trophy will be handed out to the deserving winners of Season 35. With sixteen celebs competing for all that ballroom glory, this season’s cast is not only one of the biggest in the show’s history, but also spans a wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide range of talent. That, of course, brings me to the question: who will win Season 35 of Dancing With the Stars?

To that end, I’ve stalked the players (and their professional partners) online, trying to determine who is most likely to win before the premiere airs tomorrow, September 15, on ABC. Who has prior dance experience? Who seems to have rhythm? And who has two left feet?

Of course, DWTS isn’t just about dancing talent. It’s also about charisma, star quality, and how many people you can convince to text your name ten times each week. Having millions of TikTok followers certainly will help you last longer, as will a plucky underdog narrative. After all, Whitney Leavitt didn’t make the finale last year despite posting the best scores all season, while Andy Richter dodged elimination week after week because everyone adored him.

So who will win Season 35? Here’s my assessment, ranking all 16 pairs from least likely to most likely to snatch that trophy.

The Dancing With the Stars Season 35 cast, ranked from least likely to most likely to win

16. Giada De Laurentiis & Alan Bersten

Unfortunately, there are a couple of not-so-great dancers on every cast, and based on this Macarena video that Giada posted on Instagram, I’m worried that she might be the contestant lacking rhythm. While she does have 2.5M Instagram followers, which is more than much of the cast, I’m also not sure she has a fervent enough fan base to overcome any dancing missteps. Are a lot of cooks watching DWTS?

15. Taylor Hanson & Britt Stewart

While Hanson certainly had a group of girls hyperventilating in 1997, the one-hit-wonder band hasn’t really maintained much cultural relevance. Taylor only has 285K followers on Instagram, and that’s not good for someone who has had several decades to build a following. As a musician, I think he’ll be fine at dancing, but I think a lack of passion will send him home early, à la Lauren Jauregui or Scott Hoying last year.

14. Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold

Connor is exactly the right kind of contestant for DWTS moms to fall in love with. Unfortunately, this year’s got a very stacked cast, and he’s got competition in the cute, funny boy category from seemingly better dancers. This video also isn’t giving me much hope.

13. Sarah Jane Nader & Hailey Bills

With only 118K followers on Instagram, Sarah Jane is entering the competition at a huge deficit. While her same-sex pairing with Hailey Bills will certainly help her stand out in the crowded early weeks, I don’t know that being sexy is the way to win over the DWTS audience. Her (more famous) sister came in 9th when she competed on DWTS, and I fear Sarah Jane likely won’t make it further.

12. Conner Leavitt & Adele Zaikman

With Conner Leavitt, we don’t have a problem with dance ability; we have a problem with likeability. He and Whitney were, in many ways, the villains of The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives, and while Whitney was clearly the best dancer on last season, she didn’t even make the finale. Conner is less famous and entering the competition with the least amount of social media followers. I can’t see him making it much further despite his level of talent.

11. Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong

Moving on into the middle tier of contestants, we have Summer House star Ciara Miller, who will certainly bring with her a very fiery and loyal fan base that should push her through the opening weeks of the season. Based on her Instagram posts so far, though, we’ve seen very little actual dancing from Ciara, which is a red flag.

10. Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess

We’ve seen several Bachelor Nation members win DWTS, and Tyler Cameron certainly has plenty of fans, but on this cast he’s very middle-of-the-pack. His dancing, while competent, certainly won’t be as good as the trained dancers lurking in the mix, and his personality isn’t big enough to match the folks further down on this list. I expect a mid-season exit for Mr. Cameron.

9. Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson

Guillermo is clearly here trying to scoop up some of the charm and good luck that Andy Richter rode all the way to week nine last season. I don’t really see a world where Guillermo is a good enough dancer to win the Mirrorball Trophy, but I expect that his personality will keep him in the mix longer than more competent dancers.

8. Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach

Ezra is really a dark horse in this competition. With only 308K Instagram followers, he’s one of the lesser-known stars in the mix, but he could easily scoop up the Robert Irwin cute boy vote given that he’s only 21. Plus, dancing on a prosthetic leg will help him stand out in a crowd of 16 in those early weeks. I’m really loving this Reel that Ezra made with Guillermo, and I’m hoping they’re a dynamic duo.

7. Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas

Unfortunately, I don’t think Maura Higgins is a good dancer, but luckily for her, she’s got enough personality to make you forget about her two left feet (at least initially). I think Maura’s charisma will take her to the middle of the competition, but she’s going to need to wow us with her dance moves to take home the trophy.

6. Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik

Don’t underestimate a Fresh Prince of Bel-Air alum. After all, Alfonso Ribeiro not only won the show, but then went on to be a host. Tatyana is already posting TikTok dances on her social media (which means she can pick up choreography quickly) and, unlike Taylor Hanson, has amassed 1.6M followers on Instagram. She’s got all the pieces in place to make it to the finale.

5. Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa

I would argue that the biggest celebrity on this season of DWTS is Julia Stiles. That puts her in an incredible position entering the competition, even if she does seem a bit stiff in the personality department. Luckily, like Tatyana, she’s already flooding her Instagram with dance videos, and she’s got one of the most charismatic pros in Ezra Sosa to help loosen her up. Julia will be in the ballroom for many weeks to come.

4. Jackson Olson & Emma Slater

Unfortunately for Tyler Cameron and Connor Wood, Jackson Olson has the goofy cute boy spot on lock. His role on the Savannah Bananas not only means that he can dance, but also that he’s great at dreaming up fun gimmicks to enthrall a crowd. He and Emma Slater are going to make these dances FUN, and I think he’s the first person on this list with true winner potential.

3. Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov

We now move on to the obvious top three (at least on paper). Amber Glenn is an Olympic figure skater, and Olympic figure skaters tend to do extremely well on DWTS. She’s got 1.5M Instagram followers, which will also help her. In any other season, she’d be a lock to win, but this season she has to contend with…

2. Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy

The chalk pick for Season 35 winner is obviously Jenna Dewan, who actually is a dancer. She was the star of Step Up after all. She’s also got 9.8M Instagram followers, which is more than double that of the second-place contestant (Maura Higgins with 4.3M). Jenna will earn top scores, and she will have a loyal fan base. The question is just if there’s enough passion from the DWTS audience to put her over the top.

1. Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson

I, however, am going to go with my gut and pick Glee star Harry Shum Jr. as the winner of Season 35. If you watch this dance video, you will see why. He’s got Jordan Fisher energy. His fellow Glee star Amber Riley also won DWTS. I think the moms will love him, the Gleeks will ride hard, and the judges will be eating out of his hand. Come claim your Mirrorball.