The Fed held. Inflation didn’t.

The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% today on a 9–3 vote. Three regional Fed presidents preferred a quarter-point hike at this meeting. Headline PCE inflation reached 4.1% year-over-year in May — roughly double the Fed’s 2% target and up from 3.8% in April, driven by tariffs and energy.

Going into today’s decision, CME FedWatch put ~36.5% odds on a quarter-point hike. After the hold, markets are still looking toward the September 15–16 meeting, while the Fed’s June dot plot showed year-end 2026 rates of 3.6%–4.1%. No new projections were released today; July is a non-projection meeting.

Meanwhile, gold trades about 20% below January’s all-time high — with the fundamental case (inflation above target, elevated central bank buying, silver’s sixth consecutive year of supply deficit) unchanged. This remains a pullback long-term buyers may want to examine.

Year-end 2026 targets remain well above spot — these are analyst forecasts, not promises: J.P. Morgan sees gold at $4,800–$6,300; Metals Focus at $4,920. Silver analyst consensus sits at $75–$85. The dollar near 13-month highs remains the main headwind.

One evergreen perspective: since Gainesville Coins opened in 2006, gold has risen roughly 6x — from about $600 to over $4,000 an ounce.