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2025: The Great Compression

The Marketplace Pulse Year In Review

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Welcome. This week: The eighth edition of the Marketplace Pulse Year in Review.

IN-DEPTH

2025: The Great Compression

2025 delivered something unusual: not a single defining crisis, but sustained pressure from multiple directions simultaneously.


Tariffs created chaos but failed to change consumer behavior. Advertising completed its evolution from optional to unavoidable. AI raised competitive baselines while eliminating the last advantages overseas sellers lacked. Platforms extracted maximum value as Amazon became 60% services, and just 40% retail.


Chinese sellers crossed 50% of Amazon's global active seller base in September – a milestone years in the making, driven by structural advantages that persisted despite mounting trade tensions.


Yet paradoxically, 2025 was both the hardest year in marketplace commerce and one offering the most positive structural shifts.


Amazon's active seller count declined 25% from peak levels while average revenue per seller increased dramatically. 235 sellers now generate $100 million+ annually, up from roughly 50 four years ago. Numerical competition decreased as operational excellence demands intensified.


The compression created the very conditions for decompression.

Year in Review Download



China's State Council Order No. 810 triggered seller exodus to Hong Kong, signaling Beijing's pivot toward revenue extraction – potentially delivering the tax parity domestic sellers have sought for years.


ChatGPT's conversational commerce threatened to bypass Amazon's $60 billion+ advertising business through organic discovery at scale.


Creator brands like Rhode, SKIMS, and Prime Hydration achieved billion-dollar valuations by building audience-first, avoiding marketplace advertising taxes entirely.

Whether these decompression forces prove strong enough to reshape e-commerce remains 2026's defining question.


The middle ground – profitable marketplace operation without massive scale, Chinese manufacturing advantages, or alternative audience routes – may not return. But entirely new models could emerge in its place.


> Read the Full 2025 Year in Review Report

A big thank you to all of our readers and subscribers for being with us in 2025. We look forward to interacting with you more in 2026.







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