E-Commerce's 10% Quarter Was Weaker Than It Looked

The strongest quarter in over two years, yet weaker than it sounds.

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May 21, 2026 11:33am EDT

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Welcome. This week: Breaking down U.S. e-commerce’s highest growth quarter in two years, Shopify opens UCP, TikTok Shop sales grow, Google launches Universal Cart, and more.

IN DEPTH

E-Commerce's 10% Quarter Was Weaker Than It Looked

U.S. e-commerce grew 9.8% year over year in the first quarter of 2026, nearly double the rate posted in each of the prior four quarters.

It was the strongest quarter in over two years, yet weaker than it sounds. Roughly half the acceleration was rising prices, not rising volume. Much of the remaining real growth was financed by a one-third surge in buy-now-pay-later borrowing.

And at eBay and Etsy, two of the largest marketplaces that still disclose their customer counts, sales rose while the customer base did not.

The headline figure, from the Census Bureau, counts dollars, not items.

Adjusted for price changes, the picture is smaller. Physical-goods prices, measured by the Federal Reserve’s preferred index, rose about 1.9% over the year, which puts real volume growth closer to 8%.

That is still a genuine acceleration from the 5% range that held through 2025, when flat prices kept dollar and volume growth nearly identical.

But close to half of what made this quarter look exceptional was higher price tags, not more goods sold.

NEWS

Shein to acquire Everlane for $100 million. The fast-fashion giant is buying the San Francisco DTC label from L Catterton, with the price covering Everlane's roughly $90 million in debt and leaving common shareholders with nothing. Forbes →
Shopify opens UCP catalog to all brands. Non-Shopify merchants can now join the Universal Commerce Protocol via a new Agentic plan, gaining product visibility across ChatGPT, Gemini, and other AI shopping surfaces without running a Shopify storefront. LinkedIn →
TikTok Shop small-business sales rose 66%. U.S. sellers under $15 million in annual revenue grew sales 66% in 2025, with active small-business sellers up 25% year-over-year to 215,000, even as larger brands like Ulta and Disney joined. Modern Retail →
Google launches Universal Cart. The agentic shopping hub aggregates items from Search, Gemini, YouTube, and Gmail, tracks prices, and lets users check out via UCP-participating merchants, rolling out in the U.S. with Canada and Australia to follow. TechCrunch →
Otto opens to European sellers. The German marketplace is admitting Dutch sellers now and Polish sellers in June, with Austria, France, Spain, and Denmark to follow, charging €99.90 monthly plus commission and 2.7% payment fees. ChannelX →

ICYMI

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E-Commerce's 10% Quarter Was Weaker Than It Looked

The strongest quarter in over two years, yet weaker than it sounds.

IN DEPTH

E-Commerce's 10% Quarter Was Weaker Than It Looked

NEWS

ICYMI

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