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🏈 Patriots-Seahawks Betting Preview

The EPA gap in Super Bowl LX was bigger than 29-13 suggests. What the data says about tonight's rematch.

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September 9, 2026 4:02pm EDT

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Patriots at Seahawks (-3) | O/U 44.5

Seattle opened as a 3.5-point favorite with the total at 44.5 for tonight's Super Bowl LX rematch, and PFF's grades suggest the number might still be light — Seattle out-EPA'd New England -0.060 to -0.322 per play in that February game, a bigger gap than the 29-13 final let on.

The catch: Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III (78.5 rushing grade, 88 yards after contact in the title game) is now in Kansas City, taking away the exact weapon that exploited a Patriots run defense that graded out 18th in the league this season.

Zoom out to the full 2025 season and the fronts mirror each other — Seattle pressured at a 40.3% clip (7th), New England at 40.4% (5th) — and both quarterbacks cratered once pressure arrived. Sam Darnold's grade fell from 90.6 clean to 53.1 under pressure and Drake Maye's from 90.1 to 46.5, which points to whichever line wins the pocket battle deciding this one.

History isn't doing New England any favors either: Super Bowl losers are just 7-19 ATS (27%) in the following season's Week 1, a trend the Patriots need to buck starting tonight.

PREVIEW THE GAME BY THE NUMBERS

QB Matchup: Drake Maye vs. Sam Darnold

Maye and Darnold finished eighth and ninth, respectively, among 43 qualifiers in overall PFF grade last season, and they got there in remarkably similar ways. Both were excellent from a clean pocket, with Darnold’s 90.6 grade ranking fifth and Maye’s 90.1 ranking sixth. As mentioned above, both dropped off when the pocket broke down, falling to 17th and 23rd, respectively.

Darnold got the ball out in 2.8 seconds — 13th among qualifiers — while posting a 5.7% big-time throw rate that ranked sixth. Maye held the ball for 3.1 seconds — 36th out of 43 — and pushed it deeper than almost anyone, with his 9.7-yard average depth of target ranking third.

Their turnover-worthy play rates were nearly identical at 3.3% and 3.2%.

DEEP DIVE TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

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PFF Edge Prop Play: Elijah Arroyo Over 0.5 Receptions on FanDuel

With the highest cover probability (83.1%) and second-highest edge (+37%) on the slate, our Player Prop Tool likes Elijah Arroyo to go over 0.5 receptions (-154 on FanDuel) tonight. The Patriots defense ranked 20th last year vs. tight end receptions, and Arroyo has hit this over in 7 of 10 matchups against similar defenses, and 6 of his last 10 games overall.

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🏈 Patriots-Seahawks Betting Preview

The EPA gap in Super Bowl LX was bigger than 29-13 suggests. What the data says about tonight's rematch.

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