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Kalshi users are botting streams now

The FADER Newsletter Tuesday July 7, 2026


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TUESDAY JULY 7, 2026

Kalshi users are botting streams now

A thwarted fraud attempt highlights how digital music seems particularly vulnerable to market manipulation.
Late last week, Spotify revised its U.S. chart rankings, cutting 500,000 fraudulent streams for “Earrings” by Malcolm Todd, knocking its chart position from #1 to #4. The move came in response to public outcry over unusual betting activity on Kalshi, one of the major prediction markets.

The skewed streaming activity was initially publicized by Caleb Davies, a frequent bettor and music aficionado, and first reported by Financial Times last week. The botted streaming activity appears to be wholly unconnected to Malcolm Todd or his label; Todd’s song was likely chosen by the perpetrator for a combination of factors that made it seem easier to manipulate and sufficiently profitable.
The situation highlights how prediction markets are creeping into every facet of our lives – and influencing the charts in the process. Per a recent report by The Times, the total amount wagered on Polymarket and Kalshi this June hit $25 billion, compared to less than $5 billion in June 2025. This spring, Kalshi cofounder Luana Lopes Lara said that $500 million had been wagered on the platform’s music-related bets over a span of roughly three and a half months.

While Spotify ultimately revised the numbers on their platform, and assured WIRED that no royalty payouts were affected by the falsified streams, Kalshi’s prediction markets had already resolved to pay “winners” and “losers.” Given the public scrutiny, it seems likely the platform will reimburse bettors who erroneously lost money. A representative told WIRED that the platform was in talks with Spotify about the specific case, and Spotify has pushed both Kalshi and its primary competitor Polymarket to remove Spotify’s branding from their products in the wake of the incident.
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