Welcome to Titan’s Take, our POV on the latest.
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"Wall Street indexes predicted nine of the last five recessions." Paul Samuelson (Nobel Prize-winning economist)
We loosely pay attention to macro forecasts. Predicting short-term macro environments is a fool's errand more often than not, but we keep an eye on what people are saying in case there's signal in the noise.
Finding it usually requires not reacting to the headline, but hunting for the second-order conclusion hiding underneath it.
So when 89% of the world's top economists expect global growth to slow over the next year, but only 13% think an actual recession is coming, that gap is the whole story.
The World Economic Forum's Outlook landed this week. First-order read: grim. Escalating conflict in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz closure, 94% of economists projecting rising inflation. If you stopped there, you’d be a bit nervous.
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Source: World Economic Forum |
Second-order read: the world's top economic minds are not calling for a collapse. What they're describing is divergence.
The Middle East is bearing the brunt, Europe faces real stagflation risk as energy shocks compound, but the U.S. and India are projected to hold strong growth, insulated by domestic demand and capital investment that doesn't depend on a functioning Strait of Hormuz.
Global capital is already moving. Big corporations are relocating supply chains out of volatile zones and into the U.S. and India at a pace the WEF describes as synchronized and significant.
That's not a projection. That's companies making operational decisions in real time, with real money (feet on the street, not just forecasts).
One other thing buried in the report: AI optimism is cooling at the edges. 92% of economists still expect adoption to surge, but the timeline for productivity gains outside of tech and digital has stretched. Construction, engineering, healthcare…the legacy industries where AI was supposed to transform margins are taking longer than the 2024 consensus assumed (worth watching).
The spread between first and second-order conclusions always widens during volatility. The U.S. large-cap equities we hold in Flagship, and the ones that make up the S&P 500, generate revenue globally and carry the balance sheet flexibility to withstand regional shocks.
Right now, boring is working. The U.S. is where global capital wants to be.
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From Giovanni Tiso, CFP®, Lead Financial Planner at Titan:
"For the long-term compounding bucket, the money you're not touching for years, short-term macro noise shouldn't drive the strategy. Bucketing matters: near-term money shouldn't ride on next quarter's market, and long-term capital shouldn't care about it.
That foundation should be diversified across U.S. equities, international markets, fixed income, and alternatives where applicable, primarily weighted toward the U.S. and the forward progress of its economy. Layer in direct indexing for tax efficiency (Titan Direct Indexing coming soon), and for active alpha exposure, Titan Flagship.”
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